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Mori, M., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, S.Yokoi, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, Y. Imada, and H. Koyama, 2013: Hindcast prediction and near-future projection of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific using CMIP5 near-term experiments with MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, 431-452.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-402

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Highlights:

• Interannual and multiyear predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) is explored, using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model, MIROC. In addition, global warming impacts on TC activity in the near-future are also examined.
• Initialized decadal hindcasts show that year-to-year variation of TC number reasonably captures the observation (Fig. 1). On the multiyear timescale, skillful prediction of TC number is likely difficult at least in our hindcasts, but three-year-mean states of hindcast started in 1998 reasonably capture observed major characteristics of TC activity associated with the Pacific climate shift during the late 1990s through the initialization.
• Projected near-future (2016-2035) change in TC number shows significant reduction (approximately 14%) especially over the western WNP (Fig. 2) even in the near-future when global warming is not so prominent compared with the end of this century.