Graphical Abstract

Ueda, H., K. Miwa, and Y. Kamae, 2018: Seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone occurrence associated with coherent Indo-Pacific variability during decaying phase of El Niño. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 96, 381-390.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2018-044 Graphical Abstract with highlights

The influence of ENSO together with the basin-wide warming in the tropical IO on TC activity are analyzed with particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño.
Our analysis reveals a sharp decrease in TC number in the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the early winter (Fig.1). The dominance of AAC over the western Pacific caused by the prolonged warming in the tropical IO is crucial factor rather than the local SSTA.
In contrast, the South China Sea exhibits the opposing response during the post El Niño season from September, showing remarkable increase of the TC count. This can be ascribed to the weakening of subsidence anchored with the positive IO SST anomalies, which diminish in September (Fig. 2).
We demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.