Graphical Abstract

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Ose, T., 2019: Future changes in summertime East Asian monthly precipitation in CMIP5 and their dependence on present-day model climatology. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 97, 1041-1053.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-055   Graphical Abstract with highlights

Plain Language Summary: The future projection by the CMIP5 models well reproducing the observed westerlies over East Asia, which is stronger than the CMIP5 ensemble mean, indicates that summertime monthly climatological precipitation in future East Asia is more likely systematically decreased in some regions (Fig.1b) rather than evenly increased in every wet region (Fig.1a). Because the strong downward motion change in East Asia is caused in the atmospheric response to large future reduction of the tropical vertical motion for the models simulating the present-day climatology of much tropical precipitation and the associated strong East Asian westerlies.

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Highlights:

• The CMIP5 ensemble mean monthly circulation change at 700 hPa in East Asia is characterized through the future summertime by a cyclonic circulation change to the south of Japan and the associated downward motion changes around Japan.
• The models showing the above features more clearly tend to project the enhanced possibility of a decrease in monthly precipitation against the 'wet-getting-wetter' effect in some regions.
• A finding is that these models tend to simulate stronger westerlies over East Asia and more tropical precipitation in the present-day northern summer climatology, which leads to large future reduction of the tropical vertical motion and large atmospheric response in East Asia.