Graphical Abstract

• Tweet

Tochimoto, E., S. Yokota, H. Niino, and W. Yanase, 2022: Ensemble experiments for a maritime meso-β-scale vortex that spawned tornado-like vortices causing shipwrecks. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, 141-165.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-007
Graphical Abstract NEW GA

Plain Language Summary: A meso-β-scale vortex (MBV) that caused 5 shipwrecks as a result of sudden gusty winds in the southwestern part of the Sea of Japan on 1 September 2015. This study with ensemble forecasts with 101 members, including one ensemble mean, revealed that the near-surface cyclonic horizontal shear to the northeast and the south of the MBV was crucial for the development of the MBV. In addition, larger low-level water vapor and its horizontal flux result in stronger convection around the MBV.
 

• Original PDF

Highlights:

• A composite analysis and an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis were conducted to understand the atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of a meso-β-scale vortex (MBV).
• The near-surface cyclonic horizontal shear to the northeast and the south of the MBV was crucial for the development of the MBV.
• In addition, larger low-level water vapor and its horizontal flux contribute to greater convective available potential energy to the southeast of the MBV, which results in stronger convection around the MBV.