Graphical Abstract

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Huang, H.-P., and G. N. Raghunathan, 2022: Predictability associated with high-latitude retrograde waves in the 1979-80 winter season. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, 233-243.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-012
Graphical Abstract Published

Plain Language Summary: The presence of coherent retrograde waves is found to influence extended-range weather forecast in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In the 1979-80 winter season, ensemble reforecasts made within the active period of retrograde waves exhibit an elevated level of anomaly correlation of 500 hPa geopotential height in week-2. The enhanced predictability is particularly significant for the long-wave components.

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Highlights:

• The analysis is based on daily ensemble reforecast data, with the anomaly correlation computed for the full 500 hPa geopotential height field and its long-wave and short-wave components.
• Active and inactive periods of retrograde waves are identified based on the coherence of phase propagation of the wavenumber-1 component.
• The methodology used for the analysis of one winter season can be adopted for a multi-year analysis in future work.