JMSJ Highlights
Editor's Highlight : Kawabata et al. (2023)
Kawabata, Y., U. Shimada and M. Yamaguchi, 2023: The 30-year (1987-2016) trend of strong typhoons and genesis locations found in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Dvorak reanalysis data. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2023-025.
Early Online Release
Graphical Abstract
Editor in charge: Dr. Masuo Nakano
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I highlight this paper which analyzed the world’s first Dvorak reanalysis data produced by Japan Meteorological Agency.
- Dvorak intensity (i.e., Current Intensity (CI) number) reanalyzed by the Dvorak technique using geostationary satellite imagery is considered to be temporally homogeneous.
- No statistically significant increasing trend in strong typhoons is analyzed, while the spatial distribution of the genesis locations of TCs, which could influence whether or not they develop into strong typhoons, varied locally during the analysis period.
- The results with the world’s first Dvorak reanalysis data highlight the need for high quality and temporally consistent datasets for climatological studies, as well as for careful interpretation of trend analysis results seen in previous studies.
Abstract
The trend of strong typhoons over the recent 30 years was analyzed using Dvorak reanalysis data from 1987 to 2016 produced by Japan Meteorological Agency. The strong typhoons were defined in this study as tropical cyclones equivalent to category 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The temporal homogeneity of the Dvorak reanalysis data is expected to be much better than that of best track data. Results showed no statistically significant increasing trend in strong typhoons with large inter-annual and multi-year scale variations. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of the genesis locations of tropical cyclones, which could influence whether or not they develop into strong typhoons, varied locally during the analysis period. The changes in genesis locations may have influenced the overall trend of strong typhoons during the analysis period. The results with the new Dvorak reanalysis data highlight the need for the accumulation of high quality data over time as well as for careful interpretation of trend analysis results seen in previous studies.